FINAL: BOS 1 — BAL 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected BOS 5.9 - BAL 4.5 (BOS at 57.2% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 10.4 total runs.
BOS
5.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
BAL
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSBAL
-1.5
Run Line (BOS)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.0% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
346
BOS
468
Projected
BOS 5.9 — BAL 4.5
Actual
BOS 1 — BAL 5
Pick Results
BOS F5 MLf5_mlLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Dean Kremer R
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FS32%83 mph44% whiff
FF23%93 mph16% whiff
SI17%92 mph15% whiff
Jake Bennett L
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%93 mph25% whiff
SI28%92 mph6% whiff
CH25%84 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
79°F16 mph wind
HR: 1.108 Total: 1.061
15mph out
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
4.34ERA
4.01FIP
8.76K/9
3.44BB/9
1.30WHIP
BOS
3.90ERA
4.18FIP
9.00K/9
3.45BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-44.8% EV
-182
F5_ML AWAY
-21.3% EV
+100
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+16.9% EV
+149
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-14.9% EV
-122
TOTAL OVER 9.0
+7.5% EV
+102
F5_ML HOME
+7.3% EV
-130
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
2.4 runs
32.3% win
BOS F5
3.5 runs
55.2% win
F5 Total
5.8
NRFI
48.9%
YRFI
51.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.17
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
70%
No HR
9%
Pete Alonso BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.148 | Barrel: 18.9% | vs Jake Bennett | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Coby Mayo BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.423 | Barrel: 10.1% | vs Jake Bennett | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Willson Contreras BOS30.0%
ISO: 0.248 | Barrel: 13.8% | vs Dean Kremer | Park: 1.08x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Dean Kremer
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Jake Bennett
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Samuel Basallo CDAY-TO-DAY
Adley Rutschman C10-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Chris Bassitt SP60-DAY-IL
Blaze Alexander 3B10-DAY-IL
Keegan Akin RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
Ranger Suarez SP15-DAY-IL
Zack Kelly RP60-DAY-IL
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B10-DAY-IL
Marcelo Mayer 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BOS 57.2%
+16.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+16.9 pts
Total
9.0
+7.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →