SF vs KC prediction for July 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects KC 4.0 - SF 5.4. SF is favored with a 54.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.4 total runs.
KC
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SF
5.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
KCSF
+1.5
Run Line (KC)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
357
KC
246
Projected
KC 4.0 — SF 5.4
Actual
KC 5 — SF 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Landen Roupp R
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI36%93 mph9% whiff
CU26%77 mph33% whiff
CH20%87 mph29% whiff
Seth Lugo R
KC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI20%92 mph10% whiff
FF17%92 mph13% whiff
FC16%90 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Kauffman Stadium
85°F12 mph wind
HR: 0.998 Total: 0.996
thin air, 9mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.06ERA
4.43FIP
8.10K/9
4.84BB/9
1.41WHIP
KC
4.34ERA
5.00FIP
8.61K/9
4.51BB/9
1.45WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
3.0 runs
50.9% win
KC F5
2.2 runs
35.4% win
F5 Total
5.2
NRFI
55.5%
YRFI
44.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.01
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Trevor McDonald SP15-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Matt Chapman 3B10-DAY-IL
Victor Bericoto RF10-DAY-IL
Jonah Cox CF10-DAY-IL
Matt Gage RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
KC8 injured
Stephen Kolek SP60-DAY-IL
Jac Caglianone RFDAY-TO-DAY
Bobby Witt Jr. SS10-DAY-IL
Kyle Isbel CF10-DAY-IL
Maikel Garcia 3B10-DAY-IL
Carlos Estevez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →