LAD vs CHC prediction for August 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHC 4.6 - LAD 3.7. CHC is favored with a 58.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 8.3 total runs.
CHC
4.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
LAD
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCLAD
+1.5
Run Line (CHC)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.1% (3,150 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAD
246
CHC
357
Projected
CHC 4.6 — LAD 3.7
Actual
CHC 5 — LAD 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Eric Lauer L
LAD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%91 mph16% whiff
FC20%87 mph17% whiff
CH16%84 mph11% whiff
Shota Imanaga L
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF41%92 mph18% whiff
FS33%83 mph39% whiff
ST14%81 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
74°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.042 Total: 1.022
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
LAD
4.08ERA
4.07FIP
10.00K/9
4.39BB/9
1.29WHIP
CHC
4.24ERA
4.63FIP
8.94K/9
3.95BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAD F5
1.8 runs
29.1% win
CHC F5
3.0 runs
55.8% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
57.0%
YRFI
43.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.90
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
LAD8 injured
Tyler Glasnow SP60-DAY-IL
Dalton Rushing C10-DAY-IL
Kris Bubic SP60-DAY-IL
Ben Casparius RP60-DAY-IL
Will Klein RP15-DAY-IL
Will Smith C60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CHC8 injured
Clay Holmes SP60-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP60-DAY-IL
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Hollowell RP15-DAY-IL
Hoby Milner RP15-DAY-IL
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.