FINAL: ARI 8 — MIA 7. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected ARI 4.3 - MIA 4.2 (ARI at 52.8% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.5 total runs.
ARI
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
MIA
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
ARIMIA
-1.5
Run Line (ARI)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
MIA L5ARI
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.4% (3,916 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
246
ARI
246
Projected
ARI 4.3 — MIA 4.2
Actual
ARI 8 — MIA 7
Pick Results
MIA MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Sandy Alcantara R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI26%97 mph9% whiff
CH21%91 mph26% whiff
FF18%97 mph17% whiff
Corbin Burnes R
ARI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC51%94 mph19% whiff
CU18%80 mph43% whiff
SI9%96 mph6% whiff
Weather Impact
Chase Field
103°F5 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.096 Total: 1.049
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
4.23ERA
3.94FIP
9.66K/9
4.34BB/9
1.31WHIP
ARI
3.19ERA
3.47FIP
8.07K/9
2.98BB/9
1.13WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML HOME
-8.5% EV
-130
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-6.5% EV
+101
ML HOME
-4.8% EV
-132
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-4.0% EV
+158
F5 UNDER 4.5
-2.8% EV
-122
ML AWAY
+2.0% EV
+122
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
2.3 runs
41.4% win
ARI F5
2.3 runs
42.3% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
54.5%
YRFI
45.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.97
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
65%
No HR
11%
Heriberto Hernández MIA28.2%
ISO: 0.129 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Corbin Burnes | Park: 1.06x
Kyle Stowers MIA26.5%
ISO: 0.235 | Barrel: 10.9% | vs Corbin Burnes | Park: 1.06x Platoon: 1.12x
Griffin Conine MIA25.4%
ISO: 0.262 | Barrel: 12.6% | vs Corbin Burnes | Park: 1.06x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Sandy Alcantara
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Corbin Burnes
0.0 K projected
ARI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Owen Caissie RF10-DAY-IL
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
William Kempner RP60-DAY-IL
Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
ARI6 injured
Ryne Nelson SP60-DAY-IL
Tyler Locklear 1B60-DAY-IL
Ryan Thompson RP60-DAY-IL
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
Andrew Saalfrank RP60-DAY-IL
Cristian Mena RP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Corbin Burnes' Bayesian ERA is listed as an impossible 0.0 in the simulation data, a clear data integrity failure that makes the ARI home pitcher profile untrustworthy, and combined with only a 2.0% ML edge, this game should be avoided until the data is corrected.
Key Factors
- DATA INTEGRITY FAILURE: Burnes (ARI home SP) shows 0.0 Bayesian ERA -- statistically impossible, indicates missing/corrupted data population
- Alcantara (MIA, 4.08 ERA) is a serviceable but unremarkable away starter; cannot properly compare against unverified Burnes profile
- Extreme heat (102.7F) with retractable roof CLOSED nullifies most weather impact, creating a neutral baseline scoring environment
- historical support YELLOW at a supportive track record for away dog 0-5% edge shows no meaningful historical edge in this profile regardless
Risk Factors
- Cannot trust model output for this game given the Burnes ERA data error -- recommend full SKIP until corrected
- Even setting aside the data issue, the 0.9% ML edge is negligible and within pure noise range
- High heat (102.7F) even with closed roof could still affect player performance/fatigue in ways not captured by the model
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ARI 52.8%
-4.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-4.0 pts
Total
8.5
+0.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.