MIA vs HOU prediction for July 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects HOU 3.8 - MIA 6.3. MIA is favored with a 57.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 10.1 total runs.
HOU
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
MIA
6.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
HOUMIA
+1.5
Run Line (HOU)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.0% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
468
HOU
246
Projected
HOU 3.8 — MIA 6.3
Actual
HOU 5 — MIA 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Sandy Alcantara R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI26%97 mph9% whiff
CH21%91 mph27% whiff
FF19%98 mph17% whiff
Peter Lambert R
HOU
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF31%94 mph20% whiff
CH22%87 mph34% whiff
SL16%86 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Daikin Park
96°F4 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.032 Total: 1.015
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
3.85ERA
3.56FIP
9.97K/9
4.48BB/9
1.21WHIP
HOU
4.13ERA
4.29FIP
8.50K/9
4.68BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
3.4 runs
58.9% win
HOU F5
1.9 runs
27.8% win
F5 Total
5.4
NRFI
51.5%
YRFI
48.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.12
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
William Kempner RP15-DAY-IL
Owen Caissie RF10-DAY-IL
John King RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
HOU5 injured
Brice Matthews CF10-DAY-IL
Mike Burrows SP15-DAY-IL
Hayden Wesneski SP60-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS60-DAY-IL
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →