Who is predicted to win MIL vs HOU on May 29, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, MIL is favored with a 54.4% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is HOU 4.7 - MIL 5.5.

How did MIL vs HOU on May 29, 2026 end?

Final score: HOU 4 - MIL 5. This page now shows our pre-game projection alongside the actual outcome for transparency — every Olympus Bets projection is preserved with its result.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

MIL vs HOU Prediction & Picks — May 29, 2026

MIL vs HOU prediction for May 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects HOU 4.7 - MIL 5.5. MIL is favored with a 54.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 10.2 total runs.

HOU

4.7

Projected Score

VS O/U 8.5

MIL

5.5

Projected Score

Win Probability

45.6%

54.4%

HOUMIL

+1.5

Run Line (HOU)

8.5

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.8% (2,610 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

MIL

467

HOU

357

Projected

HOU 4.7 — MIL 5.5

Actual

HOU 4 — MIL 5

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Coleman Crow R

MIL

FC35%88 mph26% whiff

CU22%74 mph19% whiff

SI17%92 mph8% whiff

Kai-Wei Teng R

HOU

ST36%85 mph32% whiff

FF26%94 mph16% whiff

SI17%94 mph15% whiff

Weather Impact

Minute Maid Park

83°F8 mph windRoof: retractable

HR: 1.055 Total: 1.029

thin air

Bullpen Comparison

MIL

3.52ERA

3.20FIP

9.59K/9

4.21BB/9

1.32WHIP

HOU

4.92ERA

4.81FIP

7.61K/9

5.24BB/9

1.45WHIP

Betting Edges

RUN_LINE HOME +1.5

-35.2% EV

-137

TOTAL UNDER 8.5

-21.7% EV

-118

TOTAL OVER 8.5

+13.0% EV

-104

RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5

-9.5% EV

+114

F5_ML AWAY

-5.9% EV

-123

ML AWAY

-5.8% EV

-139

First 5 Innings & NRFI

MIL F5

2.7 runs

44.2% win

HOU F5

2.5 runs

41.2% win

F5 Total

5.2

NRFI

52.6%

YRFI

47.3%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

1.02

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

2.5

Over 0.5 HR

92%

Over 1.5 HR

70%

No HR

Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%

ISO: 0.311 | Barrel: 18.9% | vs Coleman Crow | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x

Isaac Paredes HOU23.9%

ISO: 0.133 | Barrel: 6.3% | vs Coleman Crow | Park: 0.99x

Christian Walker HOU21.3%

ISO: 0.271 | Barrel: 15.5% | vs Coleman Crow | Park: 0.99x

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Coleman Crow

0.0 K projected

MIL | K/9: 0.0

Kai-Wei Teng

0.0 K projected

HOU | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

MIL8 injured

Quinn Priester SP15-DAY-IL

Jared Koenig RP15-DAY-IL

Brandon Woodruff SP15-DAY-IL

Logan Henderson SP15-DAY-IL

Rob Zastryzny RP60-DAY-IL

Brandon Lockridge LF10-DAY-IL

+2 more

HOU8 injured

Hayden Wesneski SP60-DAY-IL

Ronel Blanco SP60-DAY-IL

Jose Altuve 2B10-DAY-IL

Cristian Javier SP60-DAY-IL

Josh Hader RP60-DAY-IL

Hunter Brown SP60-DAY-IL

+2 more

Edge Analysis

Moneyline

MIL 54.4%

-35.2 pts

Run Line

+1.5

-35.2 pts

Total

8.5

+13.0 pts

How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →

MIL vs HOU Prediction