Who is predicted to win MIL vs HOU on May 29, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, MIL is favored with a 54.4% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is HOU 4.7 - MIL 5.5.

How did MIL vs HOU on May 29, 2026 end?

Final score: HOU 4 - MIL 5. This page now shows our pre-game projection alongside the actual outcome for transparency — every Olympus Bets projection is preserved with its result.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

MIL vs HOU Prediction & Picks — May 29, 2026

MIL vs HOU prediction for May 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects HOU 4.7 - MIL 5.5. MIL is favored with a 54.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 10.2 total runs.

HOU

4.7

Projected Score

VS O/U 8.5

MIL

5.5

Projected Score

Win Probability

45.6%

54.4%

HOUMIL

+1.5

Run Line (HOU)

8.5

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.7% (2,300 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

MIL

467

HOU

357

Projected

HOU 4.7 — MIL 5.5

Actual

HOU 4 — MIL 5

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Coleman Crow R

MIL

FC35%88 mph26% whiff

CU22%74 mph19% whiff

SI17%92 mph8% whiff

Kai-Wei Teng R

HOU

ST36%85 mph32% whiff

FF26%94 mph16% whiff

SI17%94 mph15% whiff

Weather Impact

Minute Maid Park

83°F8 mph windRoof: retractable

HR: 1.055 Total: 1.029

thin air

Bullpen Comparison

MIL

3.52ERA

3.20FIP

9.59K/9

4.21BB/9

1.32WHIP

HOU

4.92ERA

4.81FIP

7.61K/9

5.24BB/9

1.45WHIP

Betting Edges

RUN_LINE HOME +1.5

-35.2% EV

-137

TOTAL UNDER 8.5

-21.7% EV

-118

TOTAL OVER 8.5

+13.0% EV

-104

RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5

-9.5% EV

+114

F5_ML AWAY

-5.9% EV

-123

ML AWAY

-5.8% EV

-139

First 5 Innings & NRFI

MIL F5

2.7 runs

44.2% win

HOU F5

2.5 runs

41.2% win

F5 Total

5.2

NRFI

52.6%

YRFI

47.3%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

1.02

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

2.5

Over 0.5 HR

92%

Over 1.5 HR

70%

No HR

Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%

ISO: 0.311 | Barrel: 18.9% | vs Coleman Crow | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x

Isaac Paredes HOU23.9%

ISO: 0.133 | Barrel: 6.3% | vs Coleman Crow | Park: 0.99x

Christian Walker HOU21.3%

ISO: 0.271 | Barrel: 15.5% | vs Coleman Crow | Park: 0.99x

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Coleman Crow

0.0 K projected

MIL | K/9: 0.0

Kai-Wei Teng

0.0 K projected

HOU | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

MIL8 injured

Quinn Priester SP15-DAY-IL

Jared Koenig RP15-DAY-IL

Brandon Woodruff SP15-DAY-IL

Logan Henderson SP15-DAY-IL

Rob Zastryzny RP60-DAY-IL

Brandon Lockridge LF10-DAY-IL

+2 more

HOU8 injured

Hayden Wesneski SP60-DAY-IL

Ronel Blanco SP60-DAY-IL

Jose Altuve 2B10-DAY-IL

Cristian Javier SP60-DAY-IL

Josh Hader RP60-DAY-IL

Hunter Brown SP60-DAY-IL

+2 more

Edge Analysis

Moneyline

MIL 54.4%

-35.2 pts

Run Line