MIL vs SD prediction for August 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 3.2 - MIL 4.2. MIL is favored with a 55.8% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.4 total runs.
SD
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
MIL
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDMIL
+1.5
Run Line (SD)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.3% (3,251 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIL
246
SD
135
Projected
SD 3.2 — MIL 4.2
Actual
SD 11 — MIL 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Dustin May R
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF26%97 mph18% whiff
FC23%93 mph19% whiff
ST19%86 mph30% whiff
Robbie Ray L
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF35%93 mph19% whiff
SL25%86 mph31% whiff
CH17%86 mph23% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
78°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.011 Total: 1.004
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
MIL
3.34ERA
3.61FIP
9.44K/9
3.95BB/9
1.26WHIP
SD
3.20ERA
3.69FIP
9.57K/9
3.67BB/9
1.22WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIL F5
2.4 runs
48.2% win
SD F5
1.8 runs
34.1% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
61.2%
YRFI
38.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.78
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
MIL8 injured
Joey Ortiz SSDAY-TO-DAY
JoJo Romero RP15-DAY-IL
Cooper Pratt SS10-DAY-IL
Sal Frelick RF10-DAY-IL
Joel Kuhnel RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SD8 injured
Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL
Lucas Giolito SP15-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
Samad Taylor LF10-DAY-IL
Jason Adam RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Even pitcher matchup (Ray 3.50 ERA vs May 4.64 ERA, but May has a K-rate edge) inside PETCO's run-suppressing park leaves no exploitable ML or total edge; the market's -126 MIL price looks efficient.
Key Factors
- Pitcher parity: Ray (3.50 ERA, 20.5% K-rate, C+ stuff) vs May (4.64 ERA, 22.9% K-rate, B- stuff). May has K-rate edge (+2.4pp) but Ray has ERA advantage (1.14 lower). Roughly offsetting.
- Park factor: PETCO Park 0.90x suppresses runs — typically benefits home pitcher (May) and lowers total scoring expectations for both sides.
- Weather: 77.6F cool, 6.7mph wind slightly in — consistent with PETCO's typical marine layer suppression. Model total 7.42 vs market 7.5 shows virtually no edge.
Risk Factors
- Away favorite (MIL -126) sits in a weak historical support.
- No meaningful edge exists on any market for this game; forcing a bet here has negative expected value relative to better spots on the slate.
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.