FINAL: CLE 6 — MIN 10. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CLE 4.5 - MIN 4.4 (CLE at 51.9% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.9 total runs.
CLE
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
MIN
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLEMIN
-1.5
Run Line (CLE)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
MIN W4CLE L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.3% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
246
CLE
346
Projected
CLE 4.5 — MIN 4.4
Actual
CLE 6 — MIN 10
Pick Results
MIN F5 MLf5_mlWIN+0.96u
MIN @ CLE F5 OVER 4.5f5WIN+0.47u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bailey Ober R
MIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH36%83 mph22% whiff
FF32%88 mph16% whiff
SL16%82 mph11% whiff
Slade Cecconi R
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF27%93 mph16% whiff
FC24%88 mph19% whiff
SI21%93 mph9% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
62°F2 mph wind
HR: 1.029 Total: 1.015
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
4.99ERA
4.47FIP
8.81K/9
4.51BB/9
1.47WHIP
CLE
3.52ERA
3.55FIP
10.51K/9
3.50BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-34.2% EV
-185
F5_ML HOME
-9.6% EV
-128
ML HOME
-9.1% EV
-145
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-7.7% EV
-108
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-4.9% EV
+152
ML AWAY
+2.6% EV
+122
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
2.4 runs
42.4% win
CLE F5
2.4 runs
42.3% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
51.4%
YRFI
48.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.02
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
58%
No HR
15%
Chase DeLauter CLE28.2%
ISO: 0.079 | Barrel: 7.9% | vs Bailey Ober | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Kody Clemens MIN28.0%
ISO: 0.247 | Barrel: 12.0% | vs Slade Cecconi | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Royce Lewis MIN22.4%
ISO: 0.155 | Barrel: 8.7% | vs Slade Cecconi | Park: 0.97x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Bailey Ober
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Slade Cecconi
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Mick Abel SP60-DAY-IL
Marco Raya RP15-DAY-IL
Connor Prielipp SP15-DAY-IL
Garrett Acton RP60-DAY-IL
Anthony Banda RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
CLE2 injured
Angel Martinez LF10-DAY-IL
Tim Herrin RP15-DAY-IL
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 51.9%
-4.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-4.9 pts
Total
8.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.