MIN vs SF prediction for September 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 3.8 - MIN 3.9. SF is favored with a 51.9% win probability. SF wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.7 total runs.
SF
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
MIN
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFMIN
+1.5
Run Line (SF)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.7% (3,913 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
246
SF
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Zebby Matthews R
MIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%95 mph12% whiff
SL23%87 mph32% whiff
CH13%87 mph17% whiff
Blade Tidwell R
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF33%95 mph15% whiff
ST32%82 mph31% whiff
SI17%93 mph8% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
59°F13 mph wind
HR: 1.073 Total: 1.043
13mph out
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
4.45ERA
4.12FIP
9.29K/9
4.15BB/9
1.41WHIP
SF
4.63ERA
4.71FIP
7.00K/9
4.42BB/9
1.51WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
2.1 runs
39.0% win
SF F5
2.3 runs
43.5% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
55.4%
YRFI
44.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.94
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
Trevor Larnach LF10-DAY-IL
Kaelen Culpepper SS10-DAY-IL
Byron Buxton CF10-DAY-IL
Mike Paredes SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP60-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SF8 injured
Jung Hoo Lee RFDAY-TO-DAY
Bryce Eldridge DHDAY-TO-DAY
Reiver Sanmartin RP15-DAY-IL
Nate Furman 2B10-DAY-IL
Logan Webb SP15-DAY-IL
Randy Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.