WSH vs DET prediction for September 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 4.0 - WSH 3.8. DET is favored with a 55.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
DET
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
WSH
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETWSH
-1.5
Run Line (DET)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.1% (3,913 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
246
DET
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
DJ Herz L
WSH
River Ryan R
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%96 mph12% whiff
SL23%90 mph28% whiff
CU16%83 mph38% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
60°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.040 Total: 1.022
5mph out
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
5.67ERA
5.28FIP
8.83K/9
4.91BB/9
1.56WHIP
DET
4.14ERA
4.51FIP
8.37K/9
4.08BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
2.1 runs
39.1% win
DET F5
2.2 runs
43.2% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
57.4%
YRFI
42.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.88
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Connelly Early SP60-DAY-IL
Matt Waldron RP60-DAY-IL
Drew Millas C60-DAY-IL
Orlando Ribalta RP15-DAY-IL
PJ Poulin RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
DET8 injured
Troy Melton SPDAY-TO-DAY
Kyle Finnegan RP15-DAY-IL
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
More Projections Today
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.