TOR vs BAL prediction for September 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 3.1 - TOR 3.6. TOR is favored with a 56.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.7 total runs.
BAL
3.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TOR
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALTOR
+1.5
Run Line (BAL)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.5% (3,913 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
246
BAL
135
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Trey Yesavage R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF47%94 mph17% whiff
FS29%83 mph39% whiff
SL25%88 mph37% whiff
Shane Baz R
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%96 mph13% whiff
KC33%85 mph27% whiff
FC15%90 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
62°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.969 Total: 0.981
7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TOR
3.33ERA
3.99FIP
8.48K/9
3.82BB/9
1.26WHIP
BAL
3.97ERA
3.71FIP
8.83K/9
3.65BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TOR F5
2.0 runs
45.4% win
BAL F5
1.6 runs
34.5% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
60.3%
YRFI
39.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.77
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TOR8 injured
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Dylan Cease SPDAY-TO-DAY
Trey Yesavage SP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Santander RF60-DAY-IL
Shane Bieber SP15-DAY-IL
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
BAL8 injured
Tyler O'Neill RF60-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Jackson Holliday 2B10-DAY-IL
Kyle Bradish SP15-DAY-IL
Blaze Alexander 3B10-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.