PIT vs LAD prediction for August 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAD 5.2 - PIT 3.9. LAD is favored with a 59.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.0 total runs.
LAD
5.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
PIT
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
LADPIT
-1.5
Run Line (LAD)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.6% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
246
LAD
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Lake Bachar R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF28%95 mph15% whiff
SL24%90 mph38% whiff
CU17%86 mph38% whiff
Blake Snell L
LAD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF48%96 mph14% whiff
CU24%80 mph48% whiff
CH16%85 mph41% whiff
Weather Impact
Dodger Stadium
96°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.089 Total: 1.047
thin air, 7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
3.55ERA
3.60FIP
9.90K/9
4.15BB/9
1.26WHIP
LAD
4.02ERA
3.93FIP
10.16K/9
4.21BB/9
1.28WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
2.1 runs
30.6% win
LAD F5
3.1 runs
54.7% win
F5 Total
5.2
NRFI
52.0%
YRFI
48.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.06
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
PIT4 injured
Konnor Griffin SS60-DAY-IL
Endy Rodriguez C10-DAY-IL
Ryan O'Hearn RF10-DAY-IL
Mitch Keller SP60-DAY-IL
LAD8 injured
Jake Cousins RP60-DAY-IL
Andy Pages CF10-DAY-IL
Justin Wrobleski SP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Diaz RP15-DAY-IL
Tyler Glasnow SP60-DAY-IL
Will Smith C60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
More Projections Today
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.