FINAL: STL 4 — PIT 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected STL 4.3 - PIT 4.2 (STL at 54.6% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.5 total runs.
STL
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
PIT
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLPIT
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
PIT W4STL L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.2% (3,529 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
246
STL
246
Projected
STL 4.3 — PIT 4.2
Actual
STL 4 — PIT 1
Pick Results
PIT @ STL F5 OVER 4.5f5LOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jared Jones R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF47%98 mph20% whiff
SL34%90 mph34% whiff
CH13%93 mph40% whiff
Quinn Mathews L
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF43%94 mph18% whiff
SL23%86 mph26% whiff
CH16%83 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
83°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.017 Total: 1.007
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
3.52ERA
3.61FIP
9.90K/9
4.27BB/9
1.26WHIP
STL
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
-11.5% EV
-118
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-9.5% EV
-118
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-9.5% EV
+150
ML AWAY
-7.6% EV
-114
ML HOME
+3.7% EV
+104
F5_ML HOME
+1.2% EV
-106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
2.3 runs
39.0% win
STL F5
2.6 runs
46.0% win
F5 Total
4.9
NRFI
54.0%
YRFI
46.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.99
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
64%
No HR
11%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jared Jones
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Quinn Mathews
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PIT4 injured
Endy Rodriguez C10-DAY-IL
Konnor Griffin SS60-DAY-IL
Ryan O'Hearn RF10-DAY-IL
Mitch Keller SP60-DAY-IL
STL7 injured
Blaze Jordan 3B10-DAY-IL
Everson Pereira RF10-DAY-IL
Masyn Winn SS10-DAY-IL
Hunter Dobbins SP15-DAY-IL
Peter Strzelecki RP15-DAY-IL
Andre Pallante SP15-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Home underdog has a modest 1.9% edge but pitcher quality clearly favors the road team (Jones 5.14 ERA B vs Mathews 6.94 ERA C+ disaster); home field advantage roughly offsets the gap, leaving too thin a margin to act on.
Key Factors
- SP gap clear: Mathews 6.94 ERA (C+, poor) vs Jones 5.14 ERA (B, solid). Favors PIT on pure stuff.
- Home field offset: STL home field narrows model edge to only 1.9%.
- Bullpen: PIT 3.52 ERA (solid) vs STL 3.65 ERA (mid) — slight PIT advantage.
- Park: Busch Stadium neutral, warm weather (83.1F) adds modest HR boost.
- historical support: combo 56.5% home ML WR is favorable long-term but current edge too small to leverage.
Risk Factors
- Minimal edge (1.9%) = essentially breakeven after vig.
- Away pitcher advantage is real and could manifest in game outcome despite home-field statistical adjustment.
- Small edge historical supports carry high variance risk.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
STL 54.6%
-1.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-1.1 pts
Total
7.5
+0.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.