SD vs LAD prediction for September 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAD 5.4 - SD 4.3. LAD is favored with a 64.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.6 total runs.
LAD
5.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SD
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
LADSD
-1.5
Run Line (LAD)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SD W5LAD W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.2% (4,023 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SD
246
LAD
357
Projected
LAD 5.4 — SD 4.3
Actual
LAD 7 — SD 0
Pick Results
Michael King UNDER 4.5 Ksk_propsLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Michael King R
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI28%93 mph14% whiff
CH27%86 mph25% whiff
FF20%94 mph25% whiff
Brock Stewart R
LAD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%96 mph29% whiff
ST25%84 mph35% whiff
CH15%89 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Dodger Stadium
69°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.052 Total: 1.028
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
SD
2.89ERA
3.50FIP
9.93K/9
3.80BB/9
1.21WHIP
LAD
3.95ERA
3.85FIP
10.08K/9
3.96BB/9
1.26WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-11.4% EV
-109
F5 UNDER 4.5
-9.3% EV
-114
NRFI NRFI
-8.2% EV
-128
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-8.2% EV
-185
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+7.5% EV
+166
ML HOME
+6.1% EV
-123
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SD F5
2.2 runs
34.0% win
LAD F5
3.0 runs
51.7% win
F5 Total
5.3
NRFI
50.7%
YRFI
49.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.10
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.0
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
80%
No HR
5%
Max Muncy LAD24.6%
ISO: 0.243 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Michael King | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Will Smith LAD21.9%
ISO: 0.184 | Barrel: 8.1% | vs Michael King | Park: 0.92x
Jackson Merrill SD21.1%
ISO: 0.201 | Barrel: 9.5% | vs Brock Stewart | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Michael King
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Brock Stewart
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SD8 injured
Gavin Sheets 1B10-DAY-IL
Jeremiah Estrada RP15-DAY-IL
Ramon Laureano LF60-DAY-IL
Jason Adam RP60-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAD8 injured
Blake Snell SPDAY-TO-DAY
Will Klein RP60-DAY-IL
Tarik Skubal SPBEREAVEMENT
Shohei Ohtani DH15-DAY-IL
Dalton Rushing C10-DAY-IL
Edgardo Henriquez RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAD 64.9%
+7.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+7.5 pts
Total
8.5
+6.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.