SD vs SF prediction for September 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 3.7 - SD 3.9. SD is favored with a 51.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.5 total runs.
SF
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
SD
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFSD
+1.5
Run Line (SF)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.9% (3,883 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SD
246
SF
246
Projected
SF 3.7 — SD 3.9
Actual
SF 5 — SD 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Robbie Ray L
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF33%93 mph18% whiff
SL24%86 mph33% whiff
CH19%86 mph24% whiff
Anthony Molina R
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF48%96 mph17% whiff
CH23%87 mph21% whiff
CU15%85 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
62°F17 mph wind
HR: 1.094 Total: 1.055
17mph out
Bullpen Comparison
SD
2.97ERA
3.58FIP
9.84K/9
3.74BB/9
1.21WHIP
SF
4.74ERA
4.59FIP
7.17K/9
4.39BB/9
1.51WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SD F5
2.0 runs
39.0% win
SF F5
2.1 runs
41.8% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
59.1%
YRFI
40.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.83
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SD8 injured
Ty France 1BOUT
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
Luis Rengifo LF60-DAY-IL
Gavin Sheets 1B10-DAY-IL
Jeremiah Estrada RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
SF8 injured
Victor Bericoto LF10-DAY-IL
Carson Whisenhunt SP60-DAY-IL
Marcelo Mayer 2B10-DAY-IL
JT Brubaker RP15-DAY-IL
Jesus Rodriguez C60-DAY-IL
Keaton Winn RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.