FINAL: SD 6 — SF 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SD 3.1 - SF 2.7 (SD at 54.1% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 5.8 total runs.
SD
3.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SF
2.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDSF
-1.5
Run Line (SD)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SFSD L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.5% (3,125 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
135
SD
135
Projected
SD 3.1 — SF 2.7
Actual
SD 6 — SF 5
Pick Results
SF @ SD NRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Landen Roupp R
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI35%93 mph8% whiff
CU26%77 mph32% whiff
CH20%87 mph26% whiff
Michael King R
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI29%93 mph14% whiff
CH28%86 mph28% whiff
ST20%82 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
80°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.021 Total: 1.010
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.36ERA
4.37FIP
8.32K/9
4.57BB/9
1.43WHIP
SD
3.11ERA
3.73FIP
9.46K/9
3.62BB/9
1.22WHIP
Betting Edges
F5 UNDER 4.5
+35.6% EV
+100
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-25.5% EV
-105
NRFI NRFI
+16.2% EV
-114
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+15.6% EV
-115
F5_ML HOME
-9.4% EV
-132
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-8.3% EV
+134
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
1.4 runs
37.6% win
SD F5
1.6 runs
38.4% win
F5 Total
3.0
NRFI
70.4%
YRFI
29.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.54
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.3
Over 0.5 HR
74%
Over 1.5 HR
38%
No HR
26%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Landen Roupp
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Michael King
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Matt Chapman 3B10-DAY-IL
Casey Schmitt LF10-DAY-IL
Jonah Cox CF10-DAY-IL
Trevor McDonald SP15-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Victor Bericoto RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
SD8 injured
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
Lucas Giolito SP15-DAY-IL
Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
David Morgan RP15-DAY-IL
Samad Taylor LF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SD 54.1%
-8.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-8.3 pts
Total
8.5
+15.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.