FINAL: TEX 5 — SF 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TEX 4.8 - SF 4.0 (TEX at 56.8% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.8 total runs.
TEX
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
SF
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
TEXSF
-1.5
Run Line (TEX)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SF L4TEX
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.2% (3,150 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
246
TEX
357
Projected
TEX 4.8 — SF 4.0
Actual
TEX 5 — SF 4
Pick Results
SF @ TEX NRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Carson Whisenhunt L
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH38%83 mph44% whiff
FF35%93 mph11% whiff
SL24%85 mph24% whiff
R TBD
TEX
Weather Impact
Globe Life Field
100°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.060 Total: 1.030
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.53ERA
4.66FIP
7.19K/9
4.36BB/9
1.45WHIP
TEX
4.35ERA
4.38FIP
8.27K/9
3.67BB/9
1.35WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
-6.8% EV
+158
ML AWAY
+6.3% EV
+176
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-5.9% EV
-115
ML HOME
-5.9% EV
-189
F5 OVER 4.5
+4.8% EV
+100
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-4.2% EV
+112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
2.1 runs
31.2% win
TEX F5
3.2 runs
55.1% win
F5 Total
5.4
NRFI
53.4%
YRFI
46.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.02
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.1
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
81%
No HR
5%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Carson Whisenhunt
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Matt Chapman 3B10-DAY-IL
Victor Bericoto RF10-DAY-IL
Bryce Eldridge DHDAY-TO-DAY
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Gage RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
TEX8 injured
Josh Jung 3B10-DAY-IL
Cody Bradford SP60-DAY-IL
Jakob Junis RP15-DAY-IL
Jordan Montgomery SP60-DAY-IL
Jose Corniell RP60-DAY-IL
Danny Jansen C60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TEX 56.8%
-4.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-4.2 pts
Total
8.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.