FINAL: TOR 2 — TB 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TOR 4.2 - TB 6.2 (TB at 57.0% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 10.4 total runs.
TOR
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
TB
6.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORTB
+1.5
Run Line (TOR)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TBTOR W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.0% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
468
TOR
246
Projected
TOR 4.2 — TB 6.2
Actual
TOR 2 — TB 4
Pick Results
TB F5 MLf5_mlPUSH+0.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Griffin Jax R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST26%88 mph36% whiff
CH22%91 mph39% whiff
SI20%96 mph11% whiff
Braydon Fisher R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SL50%89 mph29% whiff
CU29%82 mph21% whiff
FF17%95 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
65°F6 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.013 Total: 1.006
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
TB
4.35ERA
4.16FIP
8.55K/9
3.50BB/9
1.33WHIP
TOR
3.92ERA
3.64FIP
9.10K/9
3.46BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-50.0% EV
-200
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+32.5% EV
+164
F5_ML HOME
-31.4% EV
-114
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-24.7% EV
-110
F5_ML AWAY
+21.3% EV
-110
F5 OVER 4.5
+18.6% EV
+108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
3.9 runs
60.0% win
TOR F5
2.3 runs
28.0% win
F5 Total
6.1
NRFI
52.5%
YRFI
47.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.09
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
60%
No HR
14%
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.227 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Braydon Fisher | Park: 1.01x
Jonathan Aranda TB26.1%
ISO: 0.228 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs Braydon Fisher | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Yandy Díaz TB19.1%
ISO: 0.083 | Barrel: 8.3% | vs Braydon Fisher | Park: 1.01x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Griffin Jax
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Braydon Fisher
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Jesse Scholtens RP15-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
Steven Matz SP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
TOR8 injured
Jonatan Clase LFDAY-TO-DAY
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL
Lenyn Sosa 2B10-DAY-IL
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
Anthony Santander RF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 57.0%
-50.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-50.0 pts
Total
8.0
+15.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →