TEX vs ARI prediction for September 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ARI 4.3 - TEX 4.1. ARI is favored with a 53.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.4 total runs.
ARI
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
TEX
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
ARITEX
-1.5
Run Line (ARI)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.5% (3,883 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
246
ARI
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
MacKenzie Gore L
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF47%95 mph21% whiff
CU18%82 mph27% whiff
CH13%86 mph36% whiff
Merrill Kelly R
ARI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH28%88 mph29% whiff
FF27%92 mph12% whiff
FC13%91 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
Chase Field
103°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.094 Total: 1.048
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
4.29ERA
4.45FIP
8.48K/9
3.76BB/9
1.33WHIP
ARI
3.25ERA
3.50FIP
8.04K/9
3.01BB/9
1.14WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
2.3 runs
40.8% win
ARI F5
2.5 runs
43.5% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
51.5%
YRFI
48.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.05
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
Nathan Eovaldi SP15-DAY-IL
Josh Jung 3B10-DAY-IL
Jack Leiter SP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Higashioka C10-DAY-IL
Cole Winn RP15-DAY-IL
Peyton Gray RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
ARI5 injured
Ryne Nelson SP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Thompson RP60-DAY-IL
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
Andrew Saalfrank RP60-DAY-IL
Cristian Mena RP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.