TOR vs HOU prediction for August 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects HOU 4.7 - TOR 3.4. HOU is favored with a 59.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.1 total runs.
HOU
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
TOR
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
HOUTOR
-1.5
Run Line (HOU)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.4% (3,150 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
135
HOU
357
Projected
HOU 4.7 — TOR 3.4
Actual
HOU 7 — TOR 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jameson Taillon R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF28%92 mph18% whiff
FC18%86 mph24% whiff
CH16%84 mph29% whiff
Hunter Brown R
HOU
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%96 mph20% whiff
SI27%96 mph18% whiff
KC21%83 mph34% whiff
Weather Impact
Daikin Park
90°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.082 Total: 1.044
thin air, 8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
TOR
2.95ERA
3.60FIP
8.00K/9
3.53BB/9
1.25WHIP
HOU
3.50ERA
4.12FIP
9.27K/9
3.75BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TOR F5
1.9 runs
28.4% win
HOU F5
3.1 runs
57.0% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
53.6%
YRFI
46.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.97
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TOR8 injured
Lenyn Sosa 2B60-DAY-IL
Joe Mantiply RP60-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Addison Barger RF60-DAY-IL
Patrick Corbin SP15-DAY-IL
Jonatan Clase LF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
HOU4 injured
Carlos Correa SS60-DAY-IL
Mike Burrows SP15-DAY-IL
Brice Matthews CF10-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.