ARI vs SF prediction for August 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 3.7 - ARI 3.5. SF is favored with a 53.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.2 total runs.
SF
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
ARI
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFARI
+1.5
Run Line (SF)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.3% (3,486 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ARI
245
SF
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Merrill Kelly R
ARI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF28%92 mph11% whiff
CH27%88 mph29% whiff
FC13%91 mph11% whiff
Matt Wilkinson L
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF63%90 mph9% whiff
CH22%84 mph12% whiff
SL12%80 mph25% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
62°F18 mph wind
HR: 1.096 Total: 1.056
17mph out
Bullpen Comparison
ARI
3.31ERA
3.59FIP
7.82K/9
2.92BB/9
1.14WHIP
SF
4.70ERA
4.51FIP
7.31K/9
4.46BB/9
1.48WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ARI F5
1.7 runs
33.3% win
SF F5
2.4 runs
49.4% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
58.9%
YRFI
41.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.81
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
ARI8 injured
Zac Gallen SP60-DAY-IL
Corbin Burnes SP60-DAY-IL
Tommy Troy LF10-DAY-IL
Michael Soroka SP15-DAY-IL
Ketel Marte 2B10-DAY-IL
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
SF8 injured
Willy Adames SS10-DAY-IL
Jesus Rodriguez C10-DAY-IL
Carson Whisenhunt SP60-DAY-IL
Adrian Houser SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Gage RP60-DAY-IL
JT Brubaker RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.