PIT vs STL prediction for August 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 3.5 - PIT 4.3. PIT is favored with a 51.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
STL
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
PIT
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLPIT
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.4% (3,503 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
246
STL
245
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Braxton Ashcraft R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF31%97 mph14% whiff
CU26%85 mph38% whiff
SL23%92 mph29% whiff
Matthew Liberatore L
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF31%94 mph11% whiff
SL25%86 mph36% whiff
CU17%80 mph38% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
92°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.064 Total: 1.033
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
3.46ERA
3.61FIP
9.81K/9
4.25BB/9
1.26WHIP
STL
4.53ERA
4.31FIP
8.05K/9
4.13BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
2.3 runs
44.8% win
STL F5
1.9 runs
36.8% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
57.8%
YRFI
42.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.86
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
PIT4 injured
Konnor Griffin SS60-DAY-IL
Endy Rodriguez C10-DAY-IL
Ryan O'Hearn RF10-DAY-IL
Mitch Keller SP60-DAY-IL
STL8 injured
JJ Wetherholt 2B10-DAY-IL
Blaze Jordan 3B10-DAY-IL
Andre Pallante SP15-DAY-IL
Everson Pereira RF10-DAY-IL
Masyn Winn SS10-DAY-IL
Hunter Dobbins SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
More Projections Today
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.